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欧洲木屑颗粒市场潜力European Wood Pellet Market Potential

文章出处:本站 人气:155 发表时间:2017/2/23 13:22:40


Besides more growth potential in the industrial market to 2025, the likely expansion of the premium sector post-2020 offers an opportunity for North American producers to soften the impact of predicted demand decline for industrial pellets post-2027.



In 2016, the wood pellet market in Europe reached a size of 19 million tons per annum (Mtpa), while production capacity stood at 23.5 Mtpa, and consists of two largely independent sectors with only limited interaction. The industrial market is focused on large-scale bioenergy generation, while the premium market is focused on small-scale residential and commercial heat generation.


工业颗粒市场   Industrial Market


在欧洲,颗粒用于工业规模的能源生产并没有广泛采用,英国、丹麦、比利时和荷兰在市场上领先。 然而,该行业占2016年欧洲颗粒需求总量的51%(9.7 Mtpa),Pöyry预计该行业将进一步增长。取决于一些政治因素,到2025年,需求可能达到1240万吨和2020万吨之间的水平。
The use of pellets for industrial-scale energy generation has not been widely adopted across Europe, with the U.K., Denmark, Belgium and the Netherlands leading the market. Nevertheless, this sector accounted for 51 percent (9.7 Mtpa) of total pellet demand in Europe in 2016, and Pöyry expects further growth in this sector. Demand is likely to reach levels of between 12.4 Mtpa and 20.2 Mtpa by 2025, depending on some outstanding political decisions.



However, governments often do not regard large-scale biopower generation as a long-term option, and in the U.K. and the Netherlands support for these plants will begin to end in 2027 and 2028 as things stand currently. Governments should start recognizing the importance of this industry sector that is able to provide baseload power to electricity networks, compensating for an increasing share of intermittent energy sources. Support schemes should be extended at appropriate levels to avoid having most of these large-scale biopower plants become uneconomical.



Supply of pellets to the industrial market from directly within Europe is limited, with only the Baltics and Portugal playing a relevant role. In total, this European production capacity amounts to just 2.6 Mtpa, covering only a small portion of the demand in the industrial market. Future growth of the European industrial pellet capacity is limited, as raw material competition is often high for new large-scale pellet mills. For the foreseeable future, the majority of industrial pellets will continue to be imported from the U.S. Southeast and Western Canada. New supply regions such as Brazil could become prevalent if demand grows beyond a certain level.



优质颗粒市场   Premium Markets


European premium pellet markets usually have a strong regional character with highly seasonal demand patterns. The recent succession of warm winters has presented suppliers with an overall challenging business environment.



Nevertheless, total demand in Europe has grown steadily and reached around 9.4 Mtpa in 2016. This market segment is expected to continue growing as EU member states work toward achieving their heating and cooling targets under the European Commission’s Renewable Energy Directive. We expect demand for premium pellets to reach levels of between 10.1 Mtpa and 16.4 Mtpa by 2020 and 2021 as a result. We anticipate this demand growth to be focused in the U.K., France, Italy and also Austria, while demand in countries such as Germany and Sweden is now stagnating, and may even decline as the focus of the renewable heating industry switches to alternative technologies.



Currently, most EU member states still have not yet formalized their renewable heat strategies out past 2020 and any demand predictions beyond then would be speculative in nature. It is clear, though, that biomass heating will continue to play a key role in meeting any future renewable heating targets.


到目前为止,欧洲优质颗粒市场由中小型颗粒厂(平均55,000吨/年)供应,通常通过贸易商、批发商和分销商渠道。这个市场必须要应对大量的产能过剩和低利用率的情况,估计有2090万吨的能力。原材料价格波动也是许多生产者,特别是那些独立的生产商关注的问题,越来越多锯木厂新增自己的颗粒生产能力。 这种具有挑战性的市场环境就是2016年初欧洲最大的颗粒生产商 German Pellets公司破产的原因。

To date, European premium pellet markets have been supplied by small- and medium-scale pellet mills (average 55,000 tpa), often through traders, wholesalers and distributors. This market segment has to cope with considerable overcapacity and low utilization rates across an estimated 20.9 Mtpa of capacity. Exposure to raw material price fluctuations is also of concern for many producers, especially those who are independent, with sawmills increasingly establishing their own pellet production capacity. Stark evidence of this challenging market environment has been the insolvency of Europe’s largest pellet producer, German Pellets, in early 2016.


一些生产商也关注从海外进口颗粒的威胁,因为在美国东南部和俄罗斯等地区的工厂能够以有竞争力的价格水平供应,并且在许多情况下已经获得ENPlus认证。 例如,俄罗斯颗粒厂通过独立贸易商,在2016年向欧洲供应了450,000吨。

Some producers are also concerned about the threat of pellet imports from overseas, as mills in regions such as the U.S. Southeast and Russia can supply at competitive price levels and, in many cases, have already gained ENPlus certification. Russian mills, for example, supplied upwards of 450,000 tons into Europe in 2016 through independent traders who provided market access. 



北美生产者的机会Opportunities for North American Producers


在未来几年,需要密切关注欧洲颗粒行业,因为它为北美生产商带来威胁和机遇。 除了到2025年工业市场有进一步增长潜力外,2020年后优质颗粒市场的进一步扩张可能为北美生产商提供了一个机会,以缓解目前预期2027年后工业颗粒需求下降对他们的影响。其中一个关键的市场进入壁垒是欧洲市场已经有完善的分销网络和终端客户。一些生产商已经为克服这些困难迈出了第一步,如Drax集团,已经通过收购一家当地供应商和分销商(英国的Billington Bioenergy公司),工业和优质颗粒行业之间的这种趋同可能变得更加普遍。

The European pellet sector needs to be followed closely over the coming few years as it holds both threats and opportunities for North American producers. Besides further growth potential in the industrial market out to 2025, the likely further expansion of the premium sector post-2020 offers an opportunity for North American producers to soften the impact that the currently expected decline in industrial pellet demand post-2027 could have on their business. One of the key market entry barriers is gaining access to already well-established distribution networks and end customers within these European markets. Some producers, such as the Drax Group, have already made the first steps toward overcoming this challenge by acquiring a local supplier and distributor (Billington Bioenergy in the U.K.), and such convergence between the industrial and premium sectors could become more common.


来源:Biomass Magazine

Author:Dr. Hannes Lechner、John Dawson-Nowak