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欧洲木屑颗粒市场潜力European Wood Pellet Market Potential

文章出处:本站 人气:73 发表时间:2017/2/23 13:22:40


      除了2025年工业市场的增长潜力之外,2020年后优质供暖颗粒市场的扩张可能为北美生产商提供了一个机会,以缓解2027年后工业颗粒预计需求下降的影响。

Besides more growth potential in the industrial market to 2025, the likely expansion of the premium sector post-2020 offers an opportunity for North American producers to soften the impact of predicted demand decline for industrial pellets post-2027.

     

      在2016年,欧洲的木屑颗粒市场规模达到1900万吨(Mtpa),在生产能力为2350万吨/年的时候,由两个主要独立的行业组成,相互作用有限。工业颗粒市场集中于大规模生物能源发电,而优质颗粒市场则集中于小规模住宅和商业发电。

In 2016, the wood pellet market in Europe reached a size of 19 million tons per annum (Mtpa), while production capacity stood at 23.5 Mtpa, and consists of two largely independent sectors with only limited interaction. The industrial market is focused on large-scale bioenergy generation, while the premium market is focused on small-scale residential and commercial heat generation.

1

工业颗粒市场   Industrial Market

 

在欧洲,颗粒用于工业规模的能源生产并没有广泛采用,英国、丹麦、比利时和荷兰在市场上领先。 然而,该行业占2016年欧洲颗粒需求总量的51%(9.7 Mtpa),Pöyry预计该行业将进一步增长。取决于一些政治因素,到2025年,需求可能达到1240万吨和2020万吨之间的水平。
The use of pellets for industrial-scale energy generation has not been widely adopted across Europe, with the U.K., Denmark, Belgium and the Netherlands leading the market. Nevertheless, this sector accounted for 51 percent (9.7 Mtpa) of total pellet demand in Europe in 2016, and Pöyry expects further growth in this sector. Demand is likely to reach levels of between 12.4 Mtpa and 20.2 Mtpa by 2025, depending on some outstanding political decisions.

 

然而,政府通常不将大规模生物能源生产视为长期选择,在英国和荷兰,对这些电厂的支持将在2027年和2028年结束。各国政府应开始认识到这一行业对电网基荷电力的重要性,补偿间歇性能源的份额日益增加。支持计划应该在适当的水平上扩展,以避免大多数这些大型生物质电厂变得不经济。

However, governments often do not regard large-scale biopower generation as a long-term option, and in the U.K. and the Netherlands support for these plants will begin to end in 2027 and 2028 as things stand currently. Governments should start recognizing the importance of this industry sector that is able to provide baseload power to electricity networks, compensating for an increasing share of intermittent energy sources. Support schemes should be extended at appropriate levels to avoid having most of these large-scale biopower plants become uneconomical.

 

在欧洲范围内,直接向工业市场供应的颗粒是有限的,只有波罗的海和葡萄牙发挥了作用。总的来说,欧洲的生产能力只有260万吨/年,只占工业市场需求的一小部分。欧洲工业颗粒产能未来增长是有限的,因为新的大型颗粒厂的原材料竞争往往很大。在可预见的未来,大多数工业颗粒将继续从美国东南部和加拿大西部进口。如果需求增长超过一定水平,像巴西这样新的供应地可能变得普遍。

Supply of pellets to the industrial market from directly within Europe is limited, with only the Baltics and Portugal playing a relevant role. In total, this European production capacity amounts to just 2.6 Mtpa, covering only a small portion of the demand in the industrial market. Future growth of the European industrial pellet capacity is limited, as raw material competition is often high for new large-scale pellet mills. For the foreseeable future, the majority of industrial pellets will continue to be imported from the U.S. Southeast and Western Canada. New supply regions such as Brazil could become prevalent if demand grows beyond a certain level.

 

2

优质颗粒市场   Premium Markets

 

欧洲优质颗粒市场通常具有很强的区域特征,强烈的季节性需求模式。最近的连续的暖冬给供应商带来了有挑战性的商业环境。
European premium pellet markets usually have a strong regional character with highly seasonal demand patterns. The recent succession of warm winters has presented suppliers with an overall challenging business environment.

 

    然而,欧洲的总需求稳步增长,并在2016年达到约940万吨。这个市场预计将继续增长,因为欧盟成员国努力实现他们的供热和冷却目标,根据欧盟委员会的可再生能源指令。我们预计到2020年和2021年,优质供暖颗粒的需求将达到1010-1600万吨之间。预计这种需求增长将集中在英国、法国、意大利和奥地利,而德国和瑞典等国家的需求将停滞不前,甚至可能下降,因为可再生能源供热行业的重点将转向替代技术。

Nevertheless, total demand in Europe has grown steadily and reached around 9.4 Mtpa in 2016. This market segment is expected to continue growing as EU member states work toward achieving their heating and cooling targets under the European Commission’s Renewable Energy Directive. We expect demand for premium pellets to reach levels of between 10.1 Mtpa and 16.4 Mtpa by 2020 and 2021 as a result. We anticipate this demand growth to be focused in the U.K., France, Italy and also Austria, while demand in countries such as Germany and Sweden is now stagnating, and may even decline as the focus of the renewable heating industry switches to alternative technologies.

 

目前,大多数欧盟成员国在2020年之前仍没有正式确定其可再生能源发电策略,现在任何需求预测本质上都是投机性质。然而,生物质供热将继续在满足任何未来的可再生供热目标方面发挥关键作用。

Currently, most EU member states still have not yet formalized their renewable heat strategies out past 2020 and any demand predictions beyond then would be speculative in nature. It is clear, though, that biomass heating will continue to play a key role in meeting any future renewable heating targets.

 

到目前为止,欧洲优质颗粒市场由中小型颗粒厂(平均55,000吨/年)供应,通常通过贸易商、批发商和分销商渠道。这个市场必须要应对大量的产能过剩和低利用率的情况,估计有2090万吨的能力。原材料价格波动也是许多生产者,特别是那些独立的生产商关注的问题,越来越多锯木厂新增自己的颗粒生产能力。 这种具有挑战性的市场环境就是2016年初欧洲最大的颗粒生产商 German Pellets公司破产的原因。

To date, European premium pellet markets have been supplied by small- and medium-scale pellet mills (average 55,000 tpa), often through traders, wholesalers and distributors. This market segment has to cope with considerable overcapacity and low utilization rates across an estimated 20.9 Mtpa of capacity. Exposure to raw material price fluctuations is also of concern for many producers, especially those who are independent, with sawmills increasingly establishing their own pellet production capacity. Stark evidence of this challenging market environment has been the insolvency of Europe’s largest pellet producer, German Pellets, in early 2016.

 

一些生产商也关注从海外进口颗粒的威胁,因为在美国东南部和俄罗斯等地区的工厂能够以有竞争力的价格水平供应,并且在许多情况下已经获得ENPlus认证。 例如,俄罗斯颗粒厂通过独立贸易商,在2016年向欧洲供应了450,000吨。

Some producers are also concerned about the threat of pellet imports from overseas, as mills in regions such as the U.S. Southeast and Russia can supply at competitive price levels and, in many cases, have already gained ENPlus certification. Russian mills, for example, supplied upwards of 450,000 tons into Europe in 2016 through independent traders who provided market access. 

 

3

北美生产者的机会Opportunities for North American Producers

 

在未来几年,需要密切关注欧洲颗粒行业,因为它为北美生产商带来威胁和机遇。 除了到2025年工业市场有进一步增长潜力外,2020年后优质颗粒市场的进一步扩张可能为北美生产商提供了一个机会,以缓解目前预期2027年后工业颗粒需求下降对他们的影响。其中一个关键的市场进入壁垒是欧洲市场已经有完善的分销网络和终端客户。一些生产商已经为克服这些困难迈出了第一步,如Drax集团,已经通过收购一家当地供应商和分销商(英国的Billington Bioenergy公司),工业和优质颗粒行业之间的这种趋同可能变得更加普遍。

The European pellet sector needs to be followed closely over the coming few years as it holds both threats and opportunities for North American producers. Besides further growth potential in the industrial market out to 2025, the likely further expansion of the premium sector post-2020 offers an opportunity for North American producers to soften the impact that the currently expected decline in industrial pellet demand post-2027 could have on their business. One of the key market entry barriers is gaining access to already well-established distribution networks and end customers within these European markets. Some producers, such as the Drax Group, have already made the first steps toward overcoming this challenge by acquiring a local supplier and distributor (Billington Bioenergy in the U.K.), and such convergence between the industrial and premium sectors could become more common.

 

来源:Biomass Magazine

Author:Dr. Hannes Lechner、John Dawson-Nowak

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